Hourly clean electricity matching could reduce gas fuel costs in Singapore by at least US$ 185 million per year by 2030

• 70% hourly matching could be achieved in Singapore by 2030 at a net system cost that is US$16m lower than under annual matching.
• Corporate procurement of clean energy matched hourly to demand reduces gas-fired generation during peak periods, easing fuel costs and improving grid efficiency.
• Regional interconnectors — such as new links with Indonesia and Malaysia — that further increase solar and battery generation, displace expensive gas burn and support system balancing. This increases Singapore’s base CFE score from 2.7% to 10%, cutting overall fuel emissions by 2.8 MtCO2 annually.
• Hourly carbon-free electricity (CFE) procurement aligns with Singapore’s plan to import 6 GW of low-carbon electricity by 2035 and raise its carbon price to SGD 80/tCO₂e by 2030.

London, 06 October 2025:

TransitionZero’s new modelling finds that corporate procurement of hourly matched carbon-free electricity (CFE) could deliver major fuel savings and lower system costs for Singapore by 2030.

At a 70% hourly CFE score, Singapore could save around US$185 million each year in fuel costs compared with annual matching. With lower capital investment requirements — around US$47 million less than annual matching — this results in a net system cost reduction of US$16 million, or 38% cheaper overall. Achieving this level of hourly matching would require only 2.4 GW of solar and 0.5 GW of batteries, contracted through power purchase agreements (PPAs) by commercial and industrial (C&I) buyers.

At 80% CFE, system costs and benefits are broadly equivalent to those seen under annual matching. But at higher levels — 90% and above — hourly matching begins to deliver much stronger system-wide advantages. While annual matching produces slightly greater emissions cuts at lower levels (70–80%), hourly matching overtakes from 90% onwards, delivering 16–22% greater emissions reductions by the time CFE scores reach 99–100%. At these levels, annual fuel savings rise to as much as US$264 million, with corporate procurement displacing gas-fired generation during peak hours of demand.

The study models how C&I buyers can procure clean electricity on an hourly basis, matching their usage in real time instead of relying on annual renewable energy certificates. It also finds that regional interconnectors multiply these savings. Imports via a 1 GW link from Batam, Indonesia, increase the access to clean generation from 2.7% to 10% in 2030, cutting system fuel costs by US$440 million. This raises the number of “clean hours” available to C&I buyers, reducing annual emissions by 2.8 MtCO2. Even without being contracted directly by corporates, such imports make the national grid cleaner, improving the hourly CFE score of Singapore’s power mix.

“Hourly matching transforms corporate procurement into a system-level asset,” said Isabella Suarez, Southeast Asia Lead Analyst at TransitionZero. “It helps displace high-cost fuel use, supports battery flexibility, and complements—not replaces—Singapore’s import ambitions. It turns clean procurement into a system benefit, not just a compliance exercise.”

Singapore’s energy roadmap includes conditional approvals for 3.4 GW of low-carbon imports from Indonesia, part of an expanded 6 GW import target by 2035. At the same time, the carbon tax was raised to SGD 25/tCO₂e and is on track to reach SGD 50–80/tCO₂e by 2030 to incentivise decarbonisation. Corporate interest in clean PPAs is accelerating, especially in energy-intensive sectors under Singapore’s Green Plan 2030, where clients seek greater control over emissions and energy costs.

Battery storage and interconnection are critical in this model — shifting solar output to evening peaks reduces reliance on gas plants and allows excess clean energy to be sold back to the grid. While the model assumes the current 15% sell-back cap and an additional xx% of imports to be available by 2030, loosening this limit could unlock further reductions in curtailment and grid balancing costs.

The Greenhouse Gas Protocol (GHGP), the global rulebook that companies use to measure and report their carbon emissions, is in the process of a multi-year revision of its standards. A central focus of this review is the update to the Scope 2 guidance – the rules governing how companies account for emissions from purchased electricity. While hourly emissions accounting is emerging as the preferred method, the GHGP does not set targets or grade performance. For Singapore, this shift matters because it will shape how companies prove their climate commitments and show regulators, investors, and customers that their operations are powered by genuinely clean energy.

Matt Gray, Co-founder and CEO at TransitionZero, explained: “Hourly matching is a ‘no-regrets’ strategy for Singapore. By enabling PPAs to match demand hourly and export surplus clean power to the grid, policymakers can drive significant fuel cost savings and reinforce national climate goals.”

Ends

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Notes

About TransitionZero

TransitionZero is a climate analytics nonprofit established in 2021. We provide system modelling data, software and analysis to support energy transition planning decision-making. We are grant-funded by the Quadrature Climate Foundation, Google.org, Sequoia Climate Foundation, Bloomberg Philanthropies, and European Climate Foundation, among others. Our data, software and analysis is used by developers, financiers, planners and think tanks internationally.

Analysis methodology

TransitionZero's study on the system-level impacts of 24/7 CFE in Singapore uses a sophisticated modeling approach to understand how different clean energy procurement strategies affect the grid and procurement costs. It involves running three main scenarios for 2030: a "brownfield" reference scenario (assuming no CFE or annual matching), a 100% annual matching scenario, and various hourly matching scenarios (from 60% to 100% CFE hourly matched). It considers factors like demand growth, technology costs, fuel costs, and national policies to determine the optimal capacity expansion and operation of power plants, storage, and transmission, aiming for a system-wide cost-optimal solution. The study specifically looks at 4% of national demand. The analysis models grid behaviour under multiple clean energy matching scenarios for 2030, incorporating assumptions on solar imports (e.g. Batam), battery deployment, fuel prices, and carbon policy to identify how such procurement affects the system's ability to meet CFE targets, costs, and emissions including Malaysia and Singapore) and Taiwan.

Contact

Renee Karunungan, Interim Head of Communications and Marketing, TransitionZero , renee.k@transitionzero.org

David Austin, Austin Media (Singapore), austindav@gmail.com