Shedding light on Pakistan’s distributed solar revolution

Summary

Pakistan has emerged as one of the world’s fastest-growing solar markets, importing around 50 GW of panels amid falling prices and widespread adoption across sectors — but comprehensive data on actual installations remains limited.

To fill critical data gaps, TransitionZero and PRIED combined satellite imagery analysis with a national household survey to produce the first comprehensive estimate of distributed solar adoption in Pakistan.

The findings show that many times more off-grid solar has been installed than official on-grid estimates. Residential adoption rises with income, highlighting affordability barriers, while in agriculture, uptake is driven by the need for reliable power and lower fuel costs. Together, these trends point to solar’s growing role in improving energy access and resilience — but also to the need for better data and more inclusive policy support.

This article was written in collaboration with colleagues from the Policy Research Institute for Equitable Development (PRIED): Muqaddas Ashiq, Rimsha Rehan, Manzoor Ahmed, and Shaheera Tahir.

Understanding Pakistan’s changing solar landscape

Solar power is the fastest-growing power generation technology in history. The IEA reports that in 2024, 80% of the 700 GW of total global renewable capacity added was solar photovoltaic (PV). Pakistan has been a stand-out country when it comes to growth in solar power, boasting an increase in electricity generation by over three times the global average in the first half of 2025. According to the most recent data (August 2025), Pakistan has imported approximately 50 GW of solar panels, turning it into the third-largest market for Chinese solar panels, a scale-up that has caught global attention.

According to Ember’s Chinese solar export datasets, from 2017 to 2020, imports rose gradually from 0.76 GW to 1.59 GW, while annual spending on imports stayed below USD 0.4 billion. During this period, the average price of imported panels declined from USD 0.35 per watt to USD 0.23 per watt, mainly due to falling global prices and improvements in supply chains.

After 2021, solar imports grew sharply, reaching 16.62 GW in 2024. This growth was supported by the expansion of rooftop solar systems, greater use of net metering, and declining equipment costs. By 2025, the price per watt fell to USD 0.08, mainly due to competitive imports from China.

Imports of solar panels to Pakistan in the first half of 2025 have nearly reached the total capacity imported in all of 2024. This reflects a clear change in Pakistan’s energy mix, with a growing share of decentralised and renewable generation.

Solar PV systems have been deployed across a variety of sectors in Pakistan. This includes the residential sector, where both net-metered systems (which allow households to feed excess electricity back into the grid), non-net metered systems (used directly by homeowners without grid feed-in), and off-grid systems are common. It also includes the industrial sector, which uses solar to power factories and large operations, as well as utility-scale systems, which are massive solar farms that supply electricity to the national grid. The commercial sector, such as businesses and offices, and public infrastructure, like government buildings and hospitals, have also adopted solar PV.

A critical gap in data

Yet beneath Pakistan’s rapid solar expansion lies a striking data blind spot — granular data about verified installed capacity – known locally as ‘quantum’ – only exists for a few sectors, while most others offer little more than rough estimates of their solar use.

For sectors with poor data coverage, researchers can only provide rough estimates based on available information. Global datasets such as IRENA’s, which rely on import data, estimate much higher capacity than bottom-up estimates as seen in TransitionZero’s product TZ-SAM, which uses machine learning and satellite imagery to detect solar installations, but is limited to assets of utility-scale. While While Pakistan’s Ministry of Energy (Power) reports around 6 GW of net-metered (connected to and exchanging power with the national grid) solar capacity and 680 MW of utility-scale capacity, a significant portion of the remaining installed capacity — including non-net-metered (commonly referred as behind-the-meter systems in Pakistan which do not exchange power with the national grid) and off-grid systems — remains unaccounted for. This suggests a large volume of distributed solar use, encompassing unreported installations, off-grid setups, and possibly stockpiled equipment yet to be deployed.

The rapid and large inflow of solar PV is even more pertinent when considering the broader context of the power sector in Pakistan. Today, Pakistan has a surplus generation capacity of nearly 20,000 MW, yet almost 10% of households remain without electricity access at all. Many urban and rural communities still face more than 12 hours of daily load shedding, pointing to significant transmission and distribution challenges. Additionally, for consumers connected to the grid, affordability has become a pressing concern, with the domestic tariffs increasing by 155% over the past three years.

In response, consumers are seeking reliable and cost-saving alternatives like solar PV to reduce their dependence on the grid. These factors have collectively fueled a bottom-up shift toward solar adoption. However, without complete and accurate data, it is difficult to know whether this expansion is equitable, whether it is truly reducing unmet demand, or whether it places additional strain on Pakistan’s national grid.

While the imports of solar PV are growing exponentially, one critical question remains unanswered: how much solar PV capacity is actually installed across Pakistan? Pakistan lacks comprehensive and accurate data on solar PV installations, especially those outside the formal net-metering system. Without a comprehensive dataset, stakeholders rely on their own assumptions — fueling conflicting narratives about solar’s true adoption, impact, and unintended consequences.

A two-pronged approach to assessing solar distribution

To address this data gap and to attempt to steer the discussion of Pakistan’s solar PV boom away from rates of import, and towards actual adoption, TransitionZero and the Policy Research Institute for Equitable Development (PRIED) developed a methodology that combines household survey data with high-resolution satellite imagery. The partnership leverages TransitionZero’s data-driven imagery analysis and PRIED’s market expertise to produce the first comprehensive picture of distributed solar in Pakistan.

TransitionZero has estimated solar adoption through analysis of satellite imagery, while PRIED has conducted an on-the-ground, country-wide survey to develop a capacity estimate and evaluate energy consumption patterns.

In the sky: estimating solar distribution with high-resolution satellite imagery

Estimating small-scale solar adoption in Pakistan requires costly high-resolution imagery that is impractical to collect for the entire nation. To overcome this, TransitionZero purchased detailed images for selected representative areas across Pakistan. We then identified and labelled solar installations within these samples, examining how installation rates vary by building size, region, and whether areas are urban or rural. For ground-mounted solar installation rates, the team examined how solar installations relate to agricultural land use. This analysis was then used to develop a model for extrapolating the labelled data to a representative solar capacity for Pakistan and its geographic regions.

A hexagonal sample image of a Pakistani urban area ©Airbus DS (2025)

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TransitionZero’s detailed technical methodology can be found here.

The results were mapped using a hexagonal grid to show how solar capacity is distributed across Pakistan. In the maps below, darker hexagons represent areas with higher solar capacity, with the values adjusted to make differences easier to see.

What we found

Following this methodology, TransitionZero estimated 27.5 GW of distributed solar capacity across Pakistan. When combined with 1.5 GW of utility-scale capacity from TransitionZero’s open-access dataset of large-scale solar facilities (TZ-SAM), this brings the country’s total estimated solar capacity to around 29 GW.

The table below shows a breakdown by both province and sector.

To account for uncertainties such as labelling confidence, panel efficiency, sampling bias, accuracy of external datasets and panel tilt, an error margin of ±18.2% was applied. This results in a 22.57 GW – 32.49 GW range of total distributed solar capacity in Pakistan.

On-the-ground: estimating solar distribution with local knowledge and survey methods

Policy Research Institute for Equitable Development (PRIED) conducted a nationally representative survey covering all four provinces. The survey examined the scale and distribution of photovoltaic (PV) systems across the residential, commercial, industrial, and agricultural sectors, including non–net-metered, net-metered, and off-grid installations as well as the consumer base who have not yet installed solar PV. It collected information on system size, year of installation, and changes in demand patterns, assessing whether solar systems are creating new demand or replacing existing grid consumption. The survey also included non-adopters to identify barriers and reasons for not adopting solar technology.

To ensure national representation, the survey employed a stratified random sampling design with a 95% confidence level, based on the 2023 PBS Census, accounting for rural–urban and provincial diversity. A total of 5,320 respondents were surveyed (5,120 across provinces and 200 from Islamabad) using a method that balanced equal representation with population size. Sectoral quotas were set for urban (residential, industrial, commercial) and rural (residential, agricultural, commercial, industrial) areas. Data collection was carried out using KOBO Toolbox with GPS verification, pilot testing, and real-time monitoring. Rigorous validation, including duplicate removal, outlier checks, and weighted adjustments, ensured data reliability and representativeness. The detailed report and the methodology on these aspects is available at priedpk.org. Here, we’ll cover the major solar PV quantum installed.

The heat map below illustrates the regions covered under the national solar PV survey.

PRIED surveyed regions

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What we found

The nationwide survey captured data from both solar adopters and non-adopters to estimate installation numbers, average system sizes, and key demographic patterns across sectors. It also identified the main barriers to adoption among non-adopters. All results were adjusted to account for potential biases. The survey findings reveal that out of 50GW of solar PV that has been imported in Pakistan over the recent years, 33.35 GW has been installed. The results, broken down by sector are displayed below.

The estimated quantum by provinces across sectors is as shown in table below.

A similar pattern is visible if results are divided between rural and urban areas in the respective provinces.

Considering the utility-scale segment, an additional 680 MW of installed capacity is added to our estimates, resulting in a combined total estimated installed solar capacity across Pakistan of approximately 34 GW. This represents the combined contribution of both on-grid utility projects and small-scale, consumer-level installations, reflecting the overall scale of solar deployment in the country. The unaccounted installed capacity — comprising non–net-metered and off-grid systems, estimated at roughly 19 GW and 8.31 GW, respectively — is particularly notable, as it exceeds the country’s peak grid electricity demand in FY 2024.

PRIED’s on-the-ground survey also looked at important demographic characteristics, such as adoption of solar by sector and by level of expenditure. Both sectors reveal sharply contrasting adoption patterns. In the residential sector, solar uptake rises steadily as annual electricity expenditure increases— only 38% of low-expenditure households (spending up to PKR 15,000 per month) have adopted solar, compared to 88% among high-expenditure households, spending above PKR 50,000 per month. The agriculture sector, however, tells a different story — one that’s far more bottom-up. Farmers with lower monthly expenditures (PKR 1–20,000 per month) show the highest adoption rate at 85%, reflecting a transition driven largely by energy reliability needs rather than income capacity.

For a more detailed and comprehensive reporting of the survey results, see the full report at priedpk.org.

Integrating technical and local insights

Using different methodologies to explore the relatively opaque solar landscape of Pakistan, TransitionZero and PRIED have arrived at complementary results, and a few differences.

Clearly, the total amount of solar installed in Pakistan is more than half of the total solar reported to have been imported from China. Rooftop solar, primarily in urban areas, has surged and explains where most of the solar has been installed. Importantly, an entire 5 GW of solar is installed on agricultural land, supporting the story of ground-mounted solar being used to power tube-wells for crop irrigation.

The demographic patterns emerging from PRIED’s on-the-ground survey highlight important implications for equity and economic development. In the residential sector, solar adoption remains closely tied to how much is spent on electricity , underscoring the affordability barriers that limit access to clean energy for lower-income households. Addressing these inequities will be essential to ensure that the benefits of Pakistan’s solar expansion are widely shared.

In contrast, adoption in the agricultural sector suggests a more inclusive trend. Here, solar uptake appears to be driven less by expenditure and more by necessity — as farmers seek reliable electricity and relief from rising diesel costs. Expanding access to affordable solar irrigation could therefore strengthen agricultural productivity, improve food security, and boost rural livelihoods. By making energy both reliable and affordable, solar power can help reduce poverty and build economic resilience, positioning renewable energy as a cornerstone of inclusive rural growth.

While there is no shortage of insights from this joint study, there are some differences to the results, most notably being an approximately 6 GW difference between the estimates of installed distributed solar in Pakistan. Part of this difference may be explained by simple statistical variation, but other factors could also play a role. Satellite imagery analyses, for example, can be affected by the age of available images or assumptions about panel efficiency. Methodological choices, such as how sectors or urban and rural areas are defined, also influence the results. In addition, our estimates point to a significant share of imported solar panels having not yet been installed. This could simply be due to a lag between import and installation — but is a worthy topic of future research.

What’s next?

In the coming months, TransitionZero will be repeating their satellite imagery based estimation of rooftop solar to address data gaps in other countries. Be on the lookout for rooftop solar data and analysis for Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia and Bangladesh, and sign up to our newsletter for updates.

PRIED will use the study’s findings to drive evidence-based policymaking and support a just energy transition in Pakistan. The results will be presented to national and provincial lawmakers, including at the Parliamentary Forum on Energy and Economy, to inform future energy strategies and regulatory reforms. Insights will also be shared with the Ministry of Energy and key institutions such as ISMO, NEPRA, and PPIB to refine planning processes, renewable targets, and market frameworks like the CTBCM. Beyond government engagement, PRIED will collaborate with civil society, contribute to global dialogues on equitable energy transitions, and formally launch the study at COP30. The dataset will also inform research on sustainable agriculture and distributed solar integration, ensuring that these findings translate into tangible policy and development outcomes.

Notes

1. A utility-scale plant in Pakistan can be defined as a large-scale power generation facility, typically with a capacity of 1 megawatt (MW) or greater, designed to produce and supply electricity directly to the national grid.
2. As per the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), an area is defined as urban if it falls within the administrative boundaries of one of the following government-notified units: Metropolitan Corporation, Municipal Corporation, Municipal Committee, Town Committee, Cantonment area (which are notified by the Ministry of Defence). The PBS classifies any area not included within the above-mentioned administrative categories as rural. This is a residual definition, where any geographic point outside of a formally designated urban unit is considered part of a rural domain.