Satellite data confirms China's solar slowdown, with the Philippines the fastest-growing of Asia's largest solar markets

London, 3 August 2026: China's solar buildout slowed sharply in the second quarter of 2026, with detected capacity additions more than halving from 38 GW to 16 GW, according to new satellite data released by TransitionZero.

The findings, drawn from the Q2 2026 update of the Solar Asset Mapper (TZ-SAM), provide independent corroboration of the slowdown reported in official Chinese statistics, as the world's largest solar market adjusts to its June 2025 transition from fixed feed-in tariffs to market-based pricing. China installed a record 315 GW of solar in 2025, more than half of all new capacity globally, as developers raced to complete projects ahead of the deadline.

Global growth has cooled but not stopped. Excluding China, detected capacity grew 4.8% quarter-on-quarter, faster than the global average of 3.9%, and three countries, Liberia, the British Virgin Islands, and the Marshall Islands, recorded their first utility-scale solar detections.

The dataset tracks 109,902 solar facilities across 194 countries and territories, with global detected capacity reaching 1,383 gigawatts (GW), a 52 GW increase from the previous quarter. Built using planetary-scale machine learning applied to satellite imagery, TZ-SAM captures utility-scale installations that often appear in satellite data ahead of official reporting.

The Philippines picks up the pace

Detected capacity in the Philippines grew 17.5% to 4.9 GW, the fastest of Asia's ten largest solar markets and the country's third consecutive quarter of double-digit growth.

Much of the momentum comes from MTerra Solar on Luzon, being built to reach 3,500 MW of solar and 4,500 MWh of battery storage, which would make it the world's largest integrated solar and battery facility on a single site. The project's first phase was inaugurated in July 2026 with over 1,300 MW of solar energised.

The site first appeared in TZ-SAM data in August 2025, nearly a year before its inauguration, and the Q2 2026 release records new sections as complete by late June 2026. The release estimates 686 MW of detected capacity at the site's main cluster, reflecting what is visible and complete at the time of satellite imagery.

The country's growth also illustrates a broader shift: with domestic demand cooling, Chinese manufacturers have pushed harder into export markets, and analysis of Chinese customs data by climate think-tank Ember shows the Philippines has become the second-largest destination for Chinese solar panel exports in 2026.

Joe O’Connor, Head of AI at TransitionZero, said:

“Our latest data release demonstrates the unique value of monitoring the global energy transition from space. We can independently verify the policy-driven slowdown in China while simultaneously tracking explosive, export-fueled growth in emerging markets like the Philippines. By detecting mega-projects like MTerra nearly a year before they officially come online, our models cut through reporting lags to deliver the ground truth on where the global solar market is moving next.”

Q2 2026: Key findings

• 1,383 GW detected globally (+3.9% quarter-on-quarter; +52 GW)
• 109,902 facilities mapped across 194 countries and territories
• Around 1,556 new sites added in Q2
• 1,421 km² of additional solar surface area detected, an area larger than the city of Los Angeles
• China's detected additions more than halved, from 38 GW in Q1 to 16 GW in Q2, accounting for around two thirds of the global slowdown
• India added 9 GW of detected capacity, second only to China, reaching 111 GW (+8.9%)
• Africa was the fastest-growing region for the third consecutive quarter, up 9.6% to 19 GW, led by South Africa at 8 GW (+9.2%)
• Asia leads with 869 GW of detected capacity. Europe reached 211 GW (+4.4%), ahead of North America at 208 GW (+3.5%), with the United States accounting for 185 GW. South America grew 5.1% to 58 GW, led by Brazil with 35 GW

Access and next release

TZ-SAM data is published retrospectively, with data for the preceding quarter delivered in the current quarter.

TZ-SAM users who download TZ-SAM through this form and tick the box opting in for updates have the data delivered directly to their inbox.

The TZ-SAM Q2 2026 dataset is open access under a Creative Commons licence for non-commercial use.

About TransitionZero

TransitionZero is a climate tech non-profit founded in 2021. TransitionZero builds software to reduce the time to build clean energy at scale. We pioneer open access and open source tools that make electricity system modelling more transparent, accessible, and actionable for governments, financiers and grid operators worldwide.

Our flagship tool, Scenario Builder, enables policymakers, planners and investors to rapidly build, analyse and share energy system and electricity grid models without coding expertise or external consultants. Supported by model-ready datasets, training and market insights, our tools strengthen in-house capacity and support resilient, affordable and locally-led energy transitions.

Since launching publicly in October 2025, Scenario Builder spans 16 countries and supports around 500 users from think tanks, government agencies, utilities, system operators, and financial institutions. TransitionZero is entirely grant-funded by leading climate philanthropies, including Google.org, Sequoia Climate Foundation, Bloomberg Philanthropies and the European Climate Foundation, among others. For more information, visit our website or contact us.