Bangladesh rooftop solar: humble beginnings

Summary

Bangladesh has made steady progress on rooftop solar, but installed capacity remains far below the 3,000 MWp target set for public buildings by December 2025.

Using high-resolution satellite imagery and an enhanced sampling and extrapolation methodology, TransitionZero estimates 370 MWp of installed rooftop solar capacity as of January 2026 (range: 310–430 MWp), slightly above official statistics.

Deployment is heavily concentrated in the Dhaka Division and dominated by commercial and industrial premises, with Bangladesh’s rooftop solar coverage sitting mid-range compared with regional peers.

Bangladesh’s rooftop solar push

In May 2025, the Bangladesh government unveiled the Renewable Energy Policy 2025, setting out an ambitious strategy to accelerate renewable energy deployment. The policy responds to mounting challenges in the power sector, including growing dependence on imported fossil fuels, exposure to global price volatility, and rising electricity costs.

The policy establishes targets of reaching 20% electricity generation from renewable sources by 2030, and 30% by 2040. These goals mark a substantial shift for a power system still heavily dominated by gas, coal, and fuel oil, with renewables contributing less than 5% of total generation.

Given land constraints and strong solar resources, the policy prioritises rooftop and distributed solar. It commits to creating an enabling policy environment for captive, behind-the-meter, as well as grid-connected rooftop installations operating under self-consumption or third-party ownership and leasing models. It also introduces fiscal incentives, including corporate income tax exemptions for developers and the removal of import duties on renewable energy equipment, which have been previously cited as barriers to solar uptake in Bangladesh.

The Renewable Energy Policy 2025 was quickly followed by a National Rooftop Solar Program and subsequent guidelines, which targeted around 3,000 MWp of rooftop solar capacity on public buildings by December 2025. It was a highly ambitious objective given the country’s performance until 2025. Bangladesh’s overall installed solar capacity stood at just 1,323 MWp by June 2025, of which 245 MWp were rooftop solar.

This article assesses Bangladesh’s rooftop solar penetration using TransitionZero’s enhanced methodology for estimating small-scale systems. While our Solar Asset Mapper tool has previously identified large commercial installations across the country – primarily within Bangladesh’s garment manufacturing supply chain – smaller distributed systems have been less comprehensively captured, warranting more thorough analysis.

Our approach

TransitionZero’s Machine Learning team has developed an in-house methodology to estimate distributed and rooftop solar development in markets where such systems are potentially a significant driver of capacity growth. The approach was first deployed in an analysis of rooftop and ground-mounted distributed solar in Pakistan, and has since been applied to four Southeast Asian markets.

This same methodology has now been applied to Bangladesh, and offers a structured and cost-effective way to assess the market’s rooftop solar landscape. In addition, it can be repeated over time to track deployment trends, policy impact, or market appetite.

In Bangladesh, our reference point is the energy ministry’s Sustainable and Renewable Energy Development Authority (SREDA)’s disclosure of 304 MWp of installed rooftop solar capacity by January 2026, something our analysis aimed to validate.

Our methodology is based on a sample of high-resolution imagery, as acquiring such imagery for the entire country would be prohibitively expensive. Instead, we purchased detailed images for selected representative areas across Bangladesh. Approximately 1,800 images were acquired and analysed, around 95% of which were captured within the 12 months preceding January 2026.

This sampling provided broad geographic coverage across the country, with limited representation only in the southeastern part of Chittagong due to imagery unavailability. This approach balances cost constraints with the need for geographic and economic representativeness.

Within the sampled areas, solar installations were identified and labelled. Installation patterns were then analysed by building size, region, and urban or rural setting. The resulting labelled dataset was then used to construct an extrapolation model to estimate rooftop solar capacity at both national and regional levels.

Labelled C&I solar in Dhaka, Bangladesh ©Airbus DS (2026)

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Labelled solar in Dhaka, Bangladesh ©Airbus DS (2026)

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The detailed technical methodology can be found here.

What we found

The results were mapped using a hexagonal grid to visualise the spatial distribution of rooftop solar capacity across Bangladesh. In the heatmap, taller, darker hexagons represent areas with higher estimated rooftop solar capacity, with the values adjusted to improve visual differentiation.

Following this methodology, we estimate 370 MWp of installed rooftop solar capacity in Bangladesh as of January 2026.

To account for uncertainties such as labelling confidence, panel efficiency, sampling bias, accuracy of external datasets and panel tilt, we estimate an error margin of 16%. This yields an estimated range of 310 - 430 MWp of total rooftop solar capacity nationwide, slightly higher than official statistics.

Furthermore, our methodology enables an estimate of the regional distribution of rooftop solar deployment. The results indicate a strong concentration in the Dhaka Division, which accounts for 72% of total installed capacity – unsurprising given its status as the country’s economic centre and most populous region. The Chittagong Division ranks a distant second, with an estimated 15% of installed capacity, reflecting its role as Bangladesh’s primary export hub anchored by the Port of Chittagong.

We also estimate that 73% of installed rooftop solar capacity in Bangladesh are on large commercial and industrial (C&I) premises, while the remaining are systems on residential and small C&I buildings. The dominance of C&I consumers is consistent with patterns observed in export-oriented manufacturing economies, such as Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia.

Finally, our dataset enables an analysis of Bangladesh’s rooftop solar installation rate, which measures the coverage of solar panels relative to building rooftop area, and how it compares with other countries. The results show that Bangladesh exhibits a pattern similar to Thailand, with relatively stronger utilisation of smaller rooftop areas compared with other markets. Overall, Bangladesh’s rooftop solar installation rates fall within the mid-range of the markets analysed.

Outlook

Our analysis indicates that significant progress is still required for Bangladesh to achieve its 3,000 MWp rooftop solar target. Nevertheless, recent trends are encouraging: installed capacity increased by 24% in the second half of 2025, according to SREDA statistics. As the market adjusts to new policies and evolving commercial conditions, it is reasonable to expect deployment to accelerate in the coming months and years.

As this data project of TransitionZero concludes, we demonstrate that our methodology can deliver robust aggregate estimates of distributed, rooftop solar deployment even with limited – but carefully designed - sampling, supported by systematic analysis and extrapolation. Beyond national-level reporting, this approach also provides sub-national insights, identifying regional hotspots, as well as deployment by consumer segment, including residential versus commercial and industrial systems.

If this analysis has been helpful, please feel free to reach out to discuss how we can further support your work.

This is the final part of a series presenting our findings on the status of rooftop solar deployment in Southeast Asia and South Asia. Check out our earlier blogs on Pakistan, Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia.